一本无码字幕高清在线

2021zhonghuineishengbodong

2020-11-12中金观点

zhongjinyanjiuliyonglainianzhanwangdeqiji,lianhehongguanjingji、shichangcelve、gudingshouyi、dazongshangpindengzongliangtuanduijigexingyeyanjiutuandui,jianggelingyu2021nianzhanwanghuijichengce,gong18wanzi,zhizaipaozhuanyinyu、gongtouzizhecankao。zhanwang2021niandetouzicelve,panduanjingjizhouqijiangyunxingzhishenmequjianyijiushibubiandezhuti,bianhuazaiyuyiqingzanshigaibianlequdongzhouqiyunxingdejizhi。

tongchangeryan,xuqiubodongshizhouqixunhuandeguanjian,tongzhanghezhaiwuzeshichufaxuqiubodongdelianggezhuyaoyinsu:tongzhangguokuaishangshengyiweizhejingjiguore,youfazhengcejinsuojisuihoudexuqiuxiaxing。yidantongzhangyalizhuanbianchengtongsuofengxian,zhengcezaicihuodekuansongqiji,cijixuqiufusu;zhaiwuguogaozeyoufazichanpaomohejinrongfengxian,zhengcejiaqianghongguanshenshenguanli,daozhixinyongjinsuohezichanjiagexiadie、xuqiuxiaxing,suihouzhengcezaicifangsong,zhouqizhongxinhuodeshangxingdongneng。

zheiliangzhongxunhuanwangfushidianxingdeneishengzhouqibodongmoshi,yiqingchongjixiadezhouqiyunxingzebutong。xinguanbingdudegaochuanranxinghejiaogaosiwanglvxianzhilelaodonglidezonggongjishuiping,yinciyiqingduijingjidechuqiyingxiangtixianweigongjicezaoshouleyanzhongdewaibuchongji,gongjishousunjianghuiyingxianglaodongzhedeshouru,jineryizhixiayibodexuqiu。suizheyiqinghuanjie,qiduijingjihuodongdewulixianzhixiaotui,shengchanyugongjihuifu,jiuyeheshourufandan,cujinxuqiuzengjia。

zheiyangyigewaishenggongjichongjisuoqudongdezhouqibodong,yijiushiwomensikaomingniandejingjizoushi、hongguanzhengcezhanwanghezichanpeizhicelvedechufadian。danyujinnianbutongdeshi,mingnianneishengliliangjianghuizengjia,bujintixianweigongjifusuduixuqiudewaiyihechengshuxiaoying,yebaokuo2020nianyingduizhengcedezhihouyingxiang。zaizheigekuangjiaxia,womenjiangtantaojinrongheshitituojiezaiweilairuheyanbian,yijixiangyingdetouzicelvehanyi。jutieryan,yousangewentiyouqizhidesikao。

一、保供给VS保需求:中美经济复苏殊途同归?

2020niandeyiqingtuxianleyigejibenmingti:shengmingjiujingshifouyoujia?congquanshehuijiaodukan,cunzaizheduishengmingjiazhihejingjiliyidequanheng。danconglaodongzhegerenjiaodukan,shengmingshiwujiade,huozheshuoshengmingdegerenjiazhiyuangaoyushehuijiazhi。dangxinguanbingduguangfanchuanboshi,renyijiagexialaodongzheyuanyitigongdelaodongshuliangjianghuixiajiang,zaiquanyuangelidengjiduanqingkuangxiajiagejizhishixiao、shichangjizhishiling。getidexingweiyouhenqiangdewaibuxing,youcixuyaozhengfuconggonggongliyichufajinxingganyu,guanjianshiyihezhongfangshiganyu。

huiguyiqingyilaigeguozhengfudeyingdui,zhongguoheoumeiyoumingxiandechayi,houguoyeziranbutong。zhongguolvxiansuodinglebingdu,zaimeiyoukegongcankaojingyandeqingkuangxia,caiquleqiansuoweiyoudeguoduancuoshifengbilerenkouchaoqianwandedachengshi,bingzaiquanguofanweineijinxinggelidongyuan。zheiyangdezuofa,wuyizaiduanqifuchulejudadejingjidaijia,danzuidaxiandudebaohuleshengming。congjingjixuedejiaodukan,baozhuleshengming,jiushibaozhulezonggongjinengli;jiangdileshengmingdeganranyuqihesiwangyuqi,jiushijiangdilezonggongjizaoshouchongjidechengdu。suizheyiqingdeyouxiaokongzhi,zhongguofugongfuchanjiasu,chengweizhuyaojingjitizhongfusuzuikuaideguojia。

oumeidengfadajingjitiganyudezhongdianmingxianyuzhongguobutong,suiranzaichuqideshihouyeyouyixiegelicuoshi,danxiangbiyuzhongguogelicuoshidejiandingxing,oumeidelidumingxianyaoruoyixie,daozhiyiqingfanfu。zaisijiduouzhouyiqingercibaofayiqian,meiguozaisanjidujiuyijingchuxianleercibaofa,daozhioumeidegongjinenglichichiwufadedaohuifu。danoumeizhengcezaijingjijiuzhufangmiandeliduda,keyishuoqiansuoweiyou,yigezhongyaozaitishicaizhengchizihuobihua,keguanxiaoguoshixiaofeixuqiujiaoqiang。

jiujingyinggaibaogongji,haishibaoxuqiu?sihugeyouqianqiu。congmeiguodezhengceluojikan,sihuzhiyaozongxuqiucijizhengcezugouda、jingjizengzhangzugoukuai,neimeyoushengmingyunluodailaidejiazhisunshizhongjiangbeizengzhangdailaidefulizengjinsuomibushenzhichaoyue。danshijianzhengming,zhongguobaogongjiweizhudezhengceqidaole“cunrenshidi,rendijiecun”xiaoguo,ouzhouzhuyaojingjitijinqiquezhonghuidageli,daozhijinrongshichangzaicidongdang,jingjifusuyemianlinzhongduandefengxian。

weishenmehuiyouzheizhongchabie?gongjichongjixiadechengshuxiaoyingkeyijiwomenyixieqishi。zaineishengzhouqimoxingxia,youyumakesijiangdefenpeibujunwenti,huozhekaiensijiangdesandaxinliguilv,“gongjizifachuangzaoxuqiu”desayidinglvshibuchenglide,zonggongjihezongxuqiuwufazidongxunhuan。danyiqingxiadezhouqibodongzhuyinshiwaibuchongji,erfeineishengbupingheng,cishi“gongjizifachuangzaoxuqiu”shiyouyidingdaolide,zheishigongjicechongjihuidailaichengshuxiaoyingdegenbenyuanyin。

zheigechengshuxiaoyingdedaxiaoqujueyugongjicechongjichixudeshijianzhangdu。ruguoshijianfeichangduanzanhuozheshiyicixingde,keyitongguokuozhangzongxuqiudefangshilaidaduan“gongjixiajiang-xuqiuweisuo-gongjixiajiang”defuxunhuan。ruguochixudeshijianbijiaozhang,huozheduoci、zhongfudebuduanchongji,zheigeshihoukuaqitidai(intertemporal)hebumentidai(cross-product substitution)lianggexiaoyingjianghuifangdagongjicedefuxiangchengshuxiaoying。

liru,ruguoyigebumenzaoshouchongji、laodonglishiye,keyitongguoxuqiucijidefangshichuangzaoxindejiuyebumen,jineryindaolaodonglidaoxinbumenjiuye,yijiangdigongjichongjidechengshuxiaoying。ruguoyiqingyizhicunzai,xinbumendechanshenghejiuyenenglikuozhangjianghuimianlinjiaodadegongjiceyueshu。jiukuaqitidaieryan,ruguoyiqingyanmianbuduan,minzhongdexiaofeiyiyuanhennanxianzhutisheng,xiaofeiquandengcuoshiduijiangdibeidongchuxudexiaoliyejiangdadazhekou。

yinci,baoxuqiuweizhudezhengceganyugengweiyouxiaodeqiantishi,yiqingcunxudeshijianjiaoduan,erxinguanbingduzuidadetedianshijuyoulishihanjiandechuanranxing,erqiejiqirongyifanfubaofa。zaimeiyouyouxiaoyimiaodeqingkuangxia,ruguoyinweiquanhengbeiganranzhedeshengmingjiazhihegelidailaidejingjichengbeneryouyubujuedehua,xinganranzhejiangyoukenengzhishujipansheng,yidanshuliangleijidaoyidingchengdu,jiukenengzaochengyiliaoxitongzaicibukanzhongfu,zhenggeshehuijiangbudebuzhonghuidagelidezhuangtai,zaocheng“cundishiren,rendijieshi”defengxian。

qianzhanlaikan,anzhaohongguantuanduideyanjiu,mingniannianchuyouxiaoyimiaojianghuiluodi,zheiyiweizhebaoxuqiudezhengcexiaoliyouwangzhubutixianchulai。gengzhongyaodeshi,zuoweiyiqingchongjixia、zhouqibodonggenyuandegongjice,suizheyouxiaoyimiaoluodi,fumiandechengshuxiaoyingyouwangzhuanxiangzhengmiandechengshuxiaoying,jigongjifusuzidongchuangzaoxuqiu。liru,bansuizheyiqingyueshuxiaotui,laodonglifanhuiyuanxiandehuozhexinjiuyegangweideyiyuantisheng,shouruzengjiazhuanhuaweixiayilundexuqiu;yuanbenyinweiyiqingyanqidexiaofei,tiqiandaodangxia,shenzhichanshengbuchangxingdekuaqitidaixingxiaofei。

gongjicefusudailaidechengshuxiaoying,diejiaqianqixuqiucijidezhihouxiaoguo,mingnianquanqiujingjikenengchengxiangongzhenfusutaishi。wentishifusudedongnengyouduoqiang?nengzouduoyuan?suizheyiqingzheigewaishengchongjixiaotui,jingjineishengdezhouqibodongchengweizhudaoliliang,womenxuyaohuidaochuantongdejingjizhouqikuangjialaisikaozuaihuozhexianzhijingjifusudongnengdeyinsu,jizhaiwuhetongzhangfengxian。

二、复苏的掣肘:通胀还是债务?

ruqiansuoshu,zaineishengzhouqibodongmoxingzhong,tongzhanghezhaiwushilianggechufazhouqibodongdezhuyaoyinsu,shishishang,zheilianggeyinsubingfeihuxiangduli,henyoukenengxianghuyingxiang,cuchengzhaiwuzhouqidiaozheng。zhongmeiliangguonaizhixinxingshichang,mingniandoumianlinzheruheyingduizhaiwuzhouqidiaozhengdefengxian。

meiguofangmian,qijinweizhigongtuichu4luncaizhengjiuzhu,neirongbaokuoxiangjuminzhijiepaifaxianjin、zengjiashiyejiuzhujindeng,leijiguimogaoda3wanyimeiyuan,yuewei2019niangdpde14%。hanjiandekuancaizhengbeihou,shimeilianchushiwuqianlidewuxianliangqe,jim2zengsudadaojinciyuerzhandegaofeng。juyoucaizhengchizihuobihuayiweidechaojikuansongzhengce,zaochengleyigepoweifanchangdejingjixianxiang:meiguozaiyiduchuxianliangqianwanrendaguimoshiyetongshi,jumindekezhipeishouruqueshinishishangshengde,youxiaozhichenglemeiguodexiaofeifusu。

ruguocongbaoxuqiudejiaodukan,meiguodecaizhengchizihuobihuawuyishichenggongde。buguo,zuoweibenbifaxingdezhuquanzhaiwu,zhiyuemeiguocaizhengchizishifoukechixudezhuyaoyinsulaiziyutongzhang。muqiankan,baokuomeilianchuzaineidezhuliukanfashimeiguotongzhangbucunzaidafushangxingdefengxian。jiyuzheizhongkanfa,meilianchutuichule“pingjuntongzhangmubiaozhi”,gaibianleshishishangzhixingleshushiniande“mubiaotongzhangzhi”,xiangshichangchuandileyouxiankaolvjiuye、budanxintongzhangdexinhao。

zheiheerzhanhoudemeilianchuzhengceyouxieleisi,shirenmeilianchuyanjiuzhuguandegoldenweiserzhenduizhanhouzhengcecengbiaoshi:yigegengweiyanzhonghechixudewentishi,congfuwuyehejunshigongyeshifangchulaiderendejiuyewenti。zheiyeshidangshidezhuliukanfa:suiranzhanzhengqijianhuobichuxianlechaogaosuzengzhang,danzhanhoudezhuyaowentishiyizhitonghuojinsuohexiaotiaoerbushitonghuopengzhang。zhanshiliudongxingdeleijibeirenweishiweizhanhoutigonglezugoudegoumaili,cishihuobizhengcederenwushibaochililvdedishuiping。ruguojiangcichude“zhanzheng”tihuancheng“yiqing”,sihuhemeilianchuzaidangqiantuichu“pingjuntongzhangmubiaozhi”deluojishiyizhide。

duici,fulidemanzai《meiguohuobishi》zhongcengzheiyangpingjiadao:shishizhengmingzheizhongyuqishicuowude,zhanhouyigeguojiajiezheyigeguojiashoudaoletonghuopengzhangdezhongchuang。huobidangjuduiyuzishenzuoyonghexingdongjieguodebuquedingxingyijigongzhongduiyujingjishijiangaoduguanzhudegongtongyingxiang,daozhiledangjuzairenhezhengcefangxiangshangxingdongdoujiaoweichihuan;huobizhengcexingdonghexiaoguozhijiandeshizhidaozhideleijiyinsujiqiyingxiang,rongyibeihulvehejilei;dangzheixieyingxiangyiwujiashangzhangdexingshibiaoxianchulaideshihou,(meiguo)lianbangchubeitixibudebutongguojiangdihuobicunliangzengzhanglvlaiyingdui。

dangran,zheibingbushishuomeiguomingniandetongzhangjiuyidinghuidafushangsheng,ershikaolvdaomingniannianchuyouxiaodeyimiaoluodihou,buyinghushizheiyangyigeyoufusujiasutuidongtongzhangchaoyuqishangshengdefengxian,meiguozhaiwuwentihuoyincibaolu。shishishang,kenengyijingchuxianleyixiezheifangmiandejixiang,bansuizhemeiguojinniancaizhengchizihuobihuaerlaishimeiyuanzhishubianzhi,tuishengjinkoushangpinjiage。lingyifangmian,ruguomeiguojingjifusuqiangduchaoyuqi,tongzhangyuqishangsheng,meiguozhangduanlilvshangxingdefudukenengchaochuxianzaideshichangyuqi。zheiduiyucunzaidaliangmeiyuanzhaidexinxingjingjitieryan,kenenghuidaozhizhaiwufengxianbaolu,zengjiajinrongshichangbodong。

duiyuzhongguoeryan,meiguomingnianlilvquxiandouqiaohuadezhijieyingxiangshizhongmeilichakenenghuishouzhai,jiangdizijinliurudongneng。buguo,jibianmeiyoumeiguotongzhangdechaoyuqishangsheng,mingnianrenminbihuilvkenengyebuhuizaichixujinniandeqiangshi。yinweiyimiaoluodijiangyouzhuyugeguochannengdejiasuxiufu,zheihuizaiyidingchengdushangruohuazhongguodemaoyitiaojian,zaochenghuilvbianzhiyali。

xuyaozhuyideshi,yuqitaxinxingjingjitiyiyang,zhongguodesirenbumenduiwaishijingfuzhaizhe,youqishiduiyufangdichandengwaizhaiguimoxiangduijiaodadexingyeeryan,bianzhishiyigexinyongjinsuohanyi,zheiyiweizhejinniandichantouziqiangjingdetaishikenenghuiruohua,fangdichanxingyedezhaiwuwentimingnianyeyoukenengbaolu。

shishishang,mingniandezhaiwufengxianbuzhishicunzaiyudichanbumen。weileyingduiyiqing,zhongguojinnianyejiaodafududetuidonglehuobikuozhang,congyinxingtixizichanduanlaikan,zheiyangyizhongkuozhangzhuyaoshitongguofeizhengfubumenjiagangganshixiande。genjuhongguantuanduideyanjiu,xindaidafukuozhanghou4-6gejidu,qiyehaibenfuxiyalijiangchudihuisheng,jianghuichuxian“jinxinyong”deqingkuang。hongguantuanduidegusuanhaibiaoming,zheiyicidezhaiwuzhouqizhong,sirenbumendehaibenfuxiyaligaoyuqiansanci,erqiehaibenfuxizhanxinzengxindaidebizhongjinqisihuyijingjiandi。

tongchangeryan,mianduihaibenfuxiyalideshangsheng,zhaiwurenkeyijinsuokaizhi、zengjiachuxu。youyuzhaiquanrendebianjizhichuqingxiangtongchangdiyuzhaiwuren,ruguohenduorendoujinsuokaizhiquhaizhaidehua,jiuyiweizhezongxuqiudeweisuo。lingyifangmian,zhaiwurenyekeyikaolvbianmaizichanquhaizhai,maiderenduole,zichanjiagejiuhuidafuxiadie。dangran,zibudizhaibuyidingjiuweiyue,zhaiwurenkeyitongguowaiburongziduguozanshidenanguan,danjingzichanyuchangzhainenglixiajianghuijinsuozairongzitiaojian,zhaiquanrenhuiyaoqiugenggaodefengxianbuchang,shenzhiyaoqiuzhaiwurenduixianyoudezhaiwubuchongdiyapin。

yinci,wulunshijinsuokaizhi,haishibianmaizichanquhaizhai,yidanyanbianchengzhaiwurendequntixingwei,doujiangdaozhizhaiwukechixuxingjinyibuxueruo。rucixunhuan,nanmianzouxiangweiyue。yidandaguimodeweiyuechuxian,zhaiquanrenduifengxianyijiabuchangdeyaoqiushangsheng,jianghuijinsuorongzitiaojian,youfajinrongdongdang、chongjishitijingji。

三、投资策略:继续超配通用资产,还是增持专用资产?

hongguantuanduiduimingnianzhaiwufengxiandepanduan,yugushoutuanduiduiyumingnianfengxianyijiashangshengdedanyoubijiaoyizhi,zheiduiyuxinyongzhaidepeizhieryankenengbingbuleguan。conggengyibanyiyishangzichanpeizhijiaodukan,zhongmeiliangguojinniandouchuxianlejinrongzichanyushitijingjidebeili,jiezhidao10yue30ri,meiguogushizongshizhijinnianshangshengle4.7%、biaopu500shangzhang1.2%、nasidakezhishushangzhangle22%,aguzongshizhijinnianshangshengle21%、hushen300shangzhangle15%、chuangyebanzhizhangfugengshidadaole48%。gushizouniudetongshi,zhongmeiliangguoshitijingjifusudedongnengyijiubuzu。

weishenmehuichuxianzheiyangyizhongyanzhongdebeili?kenengheyiqingzengjiaduiweilaiyuqidebuquedingxingyouguan,zaizheizhongqingkuangxia,renmenhuigengzhongshizichandetongyongxing。xianjinshitongyongxingzuihaodezichan,takeyisuishizhuanhuaweiqitazichan;qicishijinrongzichan,zheixiezichandebeihousuiranduiyingzheshengchanxingdeshiwuzichan,danzhengquanhuazhihou,liudongxingyaohaoyuqidicengdeshiwuzichan,tongyongxingdedaotisheng;zaicishitudi、fangzidengfeishengchanxingdeshiwuzichan,zheixiebudongchansuiranliudongxingjiaojinrongzichanchaxie,dantongyongxingbichangfang、jiqishebeidengshiwuzichanyaohaoxie;zuihoushishengchanxingdeshiwuzichan,zheixiezichanbudanliudongxingcha,erqiezhuanyongxingjiaoqiang,zhuanhuachengqitayongtudechengbenjiaogao,yinertongyongxingjiaocha。

touzizhezaibutongdequedingxingxia,duizichantongyongxingdepianhaoshibuyiyangde。zaijinniansanyuefen,xinguanyiqingxunsumanyanquanqiu、geguofenfentongguodafengsuodefangshiyingdui,zheigeshihoutouzizhemianduidebuquedingxingshizuiqiangde,zaizichanpeizhishangmingxianqinglaiyutongyongxingzuiqiangdexianjin,jihusuoyouqitazichandoushixiadie。suihou,bansuizhegeguofenfencaiquganyucuoshi,jingjiyunxingdebuquedingxingyousuoxiajiang,tongyongxingxunyuxianjindegushikaishifusu、fandan;zaisuihou,bansuizhebinghuansiwanglvdenianlingfenbutedianriyiqingxi,jingjiyunxingdebuquedingxingjinyibuxiajiang,gushijiasufandandetongshi,fangdichanzuoweitongyongxingjiaoqiangdeshiwuzichan,qijiagekaishimingxianshangxing。

muqian,youyuyiqinghaiweiyuanqu,fusumianlindebuquedingxingyiranhenda,yincihaimeiyouguanchadaozhuanyongxingzichanpianhaodemingxianshangsheng。buguo,zonghecelvehegexingyetuanduidemingnianzhanwangkan,dazong、yinxingdengzhouqixingxingyehepianzhouqixingdekexuanxiaofei,zhanwangxiangduijinnianleguanyixie,pianfangyuxingdebixuxiaofeizhanwangxiangduiyujinnianfanerjinshenleyixie。zheiyangyigexingyekanfa,yinhandejibenjiasheshifusuyanxu,jiyouxiaodeyimiaojianghuizainianchuluodi,youwangjinyibujiangdijingjiyunxingdebuquedingxing。zheiyangyigebianhuayiweizhedangqiantouzizhechaopeitongyongxingzichan、dipeizhuanyongxingzichandetaishiyoukenengfashengbianhua。

zongzhi,wulunshiduiyujingji、zhengcehaishizichanpeizhi,xinguanyiqingzuoweiquanrenleidezainan,zaiguoqudeyinianzhongchongjilehenduoxiguanxingrenshi。zhanwangmingnian,womenrenweiyiqingzaochengdewaishengchongjiyouwangzhubuxiaotui,gongjichuangzaoxuqiuxiadechengshuxiaoying,kenenghuijiangjingjizhongxintuihuineishengdezhouqibodongguidao,zhaiwu、tongzhangdengyinsujiangzaicichengweiyinfazhouqibodongdezhuyaoyinsu。zheiyangyigebianhuakenengyiweizhemingniandezichanpeizhicelveyehuiyouxiebianhua。benwenshiwomenjizhunjiashexiadeyigechubusikao,gengjiaxiangxidetouzicelvefenxihefengxiantishicanjianbaogaozhengwen。


彭文生

shouxijingjixuejia、yanjiubufuzeren

2020nian11yueyubeijing